Welcome!
I am Head of Economic Analysis in the Monetary Policy Division of Banco Central de Chile, where I lead a team conducting policy-relevant applied research. My work focuses on macroeconomic dynamics in emerging economies, with particular emphasis on labor markets, fiscal policy, and the mechanisms shaping aggregate outcomes.
My research uses macroeconomic models, as well as administrative and confidential microdata, to study the mechanisms through which shocks and policies affect firms, workers, and aggregate outcomes.
Research themes
- Labor markets, immigration, and policy transmission
- How labor supply shocks, labor market institutions, and wage policies affect inflation dynamics, firm behavior, and reallocation.
- Fiscal policy in small open and commodity-exporting economies
- Fiscal multipliers, consolidations, and the interaction between public finances, macroeconomic fluctuations, and volatile commodity prices.
- Productivity, innovation, and production networks
- How distortions transmitted through production networks affect firm incentives to innovate and contribute to productivity stagnation in emerging economies.
Selected and recent work
- “On the Response of Inflation and Monetary Policy to an Immigration Shock,” with Benjamín García, Journal of Human Capital, 19 (2), 2025, 383-433.
- “Immigration in Emerging Countries: A Macroeconomic Perspective,” with Agustín Arias, Central Bank of Chile Working Paper 857, 2019. R&R The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
- “Search Frictions and the Business Cycle in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model,” with Markus Kirchner and Rodrigo Tranamil, Review of Economic Dynamics, 39, 2021, 258-279.
In current work, I increasingly use firm‑ and worker‑level microdata to study the mechanisms through which policies and distortions shape aggregate adjustment, the reallocation of activity across firms and workers, and productivity.
About me
I received a Ph.D. in Economics from Fordham University in 2015. Prior to my current role, I worked as a Senior Economist at the Economic Modeling and Forecasting units at the Central Bank of Chile, and I was an Adjunct Professor at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, where I taught Applied Macroeconometrics.
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Email: jguerra [at] bcentral [dot] cl
Address:
División de Política Monetaria
Banco Central de Chile
Agustinas 1180
Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile
The views expressed on this website are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central Bank of Chile.